具體描述
A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.
In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.
用戶評價
##大曆史角度寫的國傢和市場變遷，印象最深的有兩條：如果20世紀初投資美英中法俄日荷意法奧10個國傢的股債現金大類資産，其中7個國傢的投資會清零（有些還不止一次）；作者篇尾預測中美未來十年軍事衝突的可能是35%。。。
評分##No 2 of 2022. 五星好評，我願意吹爆這本書。利用元旦假期讀完這厚厚又沉甸甸的一本書，糅閤瞭曆史，政治和經濟的趨勢大輪廓總結，以一個上帝視角觀察瞭過去幾百年的輪迴和麯綫。撇開作者和中國的深厚友誼和關係，對曆史的評價和對中國的理解還是很客觀和深刻的，懂得曆史的人能在對方角度去思考的人都是有大智慧的人，同時作者對中美關係的評價以及未來趨嚮發展也是足夠理性的。除此之外，曆史是復雜的，這種抽絲剝繭的概括不能詮釋曆史的全部，但至少讓我們能夠跳齣自己的視野去更好的理解和觀察這個世界，畢竟在時代的趨勢下我們每個人都是渺小的灰塵。
評分##債務周期視角下的世界秩序
評分##大時代兒女必讀書目。非常清晰有價值的體係，讓我可以把之前一直在糾結理清的宏觀微觀政治經濟曆史的規律與偶然，趨勢與變化一股腦都扔進去。
評分##宏大的史觀和抽絲剝繭後鞭闢入裏的總結，非常值得一讀。
評分闡述瞭老子的樸素思想：禍兮福之所倚，福兮禍之所伏。
評分##大時代兒女必讀書目。非常清晰有價值的體係，讓我可以把之前一直在糾結理清的宏觀微觀政治經濟曆史的規律與偶然，趨勢與變化一股腦都扔進去。
評分##宏大的史觀和抽絲剝繭後鞭闢入裏的總結，非常值得一讀。
評分##大時代兒女必讀書目。非常清晰有價值的體係，讓我可以把之前一直在糾結理清的宏觀微觀政治經濟曆史的規律與偶然，趨勢與變化一股腦都扔進去。
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