具體描述
One of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time provides practical insight and keen analysis on how to track, and react to, the ups and downs of the stock market. Marks reveals the hidden logic in carefully pinpointing market trends so that every investor can profit.
”When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something.” –Warren Buffett
Economies, companies, and markets operate according to patterns or cycles. These cycles arise from naturally occurring phenomena in everyday business, and to a large extent, from the simple ups and downs of human psychology and behavior. When should you pull out of the market? When should you stay in?
These fundamental psychological influences–including greed and fear–can and do profoundly affect investors. If you carefully study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and remain alert for the next up or down cycle, you won't have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment. And you're less likely to be blind-sided by unexpected events.
By following Marks’s insights–which are drawn from his memorable memos to clients–you can master these recurring patterns for your own financial gain and psychological benefit.
用戶評價
##"The most important things" is much better than this. Though it still provide some interesting points, but the whole book seems repeat itself all the time. I wonder " if cycles are so obvious, why other people can not operate base on it."
評分##保持謙卑，因為所得皆是運氣；保持清高，降維纔有確定收益。
評分##道可道，非常道。 To be roughly right in extreme cases. 總體來講，這本書不如《投資最重要的事》。其實可以寫得更短一些，沒有必要寫成一本書。
評分##一點都不覺得水，和the most important thing 一起讀的，適閤初入股市的新手，先把價值觀清洗下，不求牛市賺大錢但求不虧損，注意風險風險風險，謹慎謹慎再謹慎。
評分##短評迴頭再補。書確實有點太長和囉嗦，但是就論述2008年金融危機的經過、周期中人性的作用、周期頂/底點的特徵這些內容，足夠給本書打五星
評分##坦白說很失望，這本書的信息密度太低瞭。Howard Marks對市場很有見解，Memo寫的也很好，前一本書也是我經常推薦給初學者的，但是他顯然沒有能力駕馭一本300頁並且隻有單一主題的書籍。這本書的內容不僅有很多重復，而且幾乎一半的內容都是在引用他之前寫的memo和他看的彆人的書，那我是買瞭一本你的讀書筆記嗎？三星給內容，但是這本書的精華完全可以在100頁，甚至50頁內寫完。完全可以齣本小冊子，而不要齣一整本書。太讓人失望瞭。建議感興趣的人花一天翻完。
評分##好多語病，甚至還有錯彆字，盡管很多觀點依然是很寶貴的。總體來說是細化瞭《最重要的事》一書中對於周期性的理解。相對穩定的經濟周期也會波動，通過債務和經營杠杆放大淨利波動，再輻射到人心上影響投資者風險偏好以及信貸消費最終形成相互影響的大周期。理解周期的意義是明白所處周期的位置。知道所處周期的位置不需要藉助任何預測，而是可以完全由觀察當下的指標實現的，比如投資債和垃圾債之間收益之差，貸款的難易程度，報紙的頭條，資産估值，近期資産升值的幅度，投資者的總體情緒，募集新的基金的難易程度等等。知道所處周期位置能夠幫助投資人更好地調整風險暴露，配置相應資産，迎接可能齣現的各種市場情形。這種判斷必然不總是正確的，但是從概率角度來講，隻要大數定理進來，他們就能獲取極好的收益。
評分##凡人凡書，我卻非常喜歡。cycles are not well defined/understood, just like risk, and it’s (a key) part of risk actually。不做superpredictor ,隻是一個瞭解當下的人(where are we)，是一個凡人能夠卓越的道路。
評分##不如前一本，推薦橡樹資本的Memo
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